The Yield Curve As A Lead Indicator The New York Federal Reserve says that research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Today, a substantial body of evidence exists from which various useful stylized facts have emerged. Look at the attached charts and data on the model that uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead. Read, Analyze and Provide Your Feedback |
